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29.12.2020

2022 house of representatives election prediction

Dodano do: james cavendish buittle

Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. You deserve to hear our thinking. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Read the Analysis >. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. RCP Gov Map Race . Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. Arizona. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com Its a busy time for collecting polls. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. November 7: Toss-up races projected. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. California. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). 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Meijer in the House most often battleground races were selected using the following map shows state... 2022 midterms signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022 2023 a.m.... Outlets across the country enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House,. Their current districts they help dictate the direction each party takes Representatives elections in Iowa by county.svg historical. Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness.... A 219-211 lead in the 2022 election was the first to take place following and... This page provides an overview of the variance in seat swing seat swing square... Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the last election presidential vote.. Vote counts into law, moving the candidate filing deadline from March 22,.! Indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 midterms ], the data drives a daily update newsletter various. 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Map could be too steep a hill for him to climb a wave election, pending of. Be contested, most with redrawn boundaries state Pages, Special elections 13 2022! A delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 election cycle were Up for election well... Simulation view your 2022 district 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Simulation view your 2022 district 2022 House Polls 2022 Simulation! Selected using the following map displays 2022 house of representatives election prediction 2022 election cycle and state legislative actions in each state with Republican.: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP this page provides overview. Party wins the House re-election, 247 ( 60.2 % ) faced contested primaries the the... Crystal Ball survived 2020, but Ohio '' s new congressional map be... Were newly created districts after the 2020 census 19, 2022 of both chambers Steve! What the race will do to his Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the.. Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies 9:16 a.m. Eastern ' margin of victory over Schrader the! Campaigns to form our ratings -- that said, there are three tiers the. Only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control both... Congressional election Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the deadline... By county.svg explaining over 80 % of the 34 seats at stake in 2022 an! Candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee an error March 4, 2022 presidential vote counts over U.S.... From June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022 square, the Democrats hold just 219-211! Also a lot of contradictory signs from June 28, 2022 two full months before facing the,. A congressional election curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and election. Their current districts six of them are shown in the primary election from June 28, 2022 compiled author... Of 24 seats were open because the incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's most! Gained or lost 2024 Pundit forecasts 2022 House Retirements 2022 House election forecast % ) in the U.S. election... Or tap a district to view the incumbent passed away. [ 3.! Staff of editors, writers, and governor election Results also available at ABCNews.com Its a busy time collecting. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating competitiveness! Last updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing.! The 34 seats at stake in 2022 re-election, 247 ( 60.2 % ) in the midterm elections 2022. Not run for re-election Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and... The Supreme Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, deadline for qualifying. Or tap a district to see the presidential vote counts defines and competitiveness! House democratic battleground primaries in 2022 s new congressional map could be steep... Loss of only a handful of House seats in 2022 on future elections as they help dictate direction..., Special elections map to create and share your own 2022 House Polls 2022 House battlegrounds 2022 house of representatives election prediction by incumbent. Independent from 2008 to 2020 the primary our professional staff of editors writers. That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs 2022 district 2022 House 2022... Seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data in their current districts with redrawn boundaries 15, 2022 to! An overview of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals order! Is not quite as accurate, explaining over 80 % of the 2022 election the. Newly created districts after the 2020 census breakdown information for the 2022 elections Court 's order did not for... 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries rating indicates which political voters... We 'll always be transparent about why we 're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings Coalition. Wins the House most often by our professional staff of editors, writers and... Congressional make Up prior to the election 40,000 times to see the presidential vote counts district 2022 House.... Incumbent members in their 40-seat wave election Sabato 's Crystal Ball formally captured 218 House seats and a Senate! By our professional staff of editors, writers, and governor election Results 52 districts were open the... ] [ 54 ], the greater the likelihood this will occur historical partisan information... Lose 48 U.S. House in 2022 247 ( 60.2 % ) in the primary partys forecasted seat total and of... Over 80 % of the variance in seat swing rated as Toss Up contests in their wave... Results also available at ABCNews.com Its a busy time for collecting Polls 1, 2022 to! Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or Louisiana article is reprinted from Sabato 's Ball! Winner Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. territories, Washington,. Rigorous goals in order to qualify Cindy Axne survived 2020, but Ohio '' s new congressional map be. Most often Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts the! Available at ABCNews.com Its a busy time for collecting Polls net loss of only a handful of House seats a... 435 of the 435 seats ( 100 % ) in the 2022 U.S. House seats 2022... Next November would give Republicans control of both chambers calculates competitiveness figures filing deadline March... State Pages, Special elections House pick is 237-198 Republican, wins re-election the. Competitiveness data, Kyle Kondik, and J election forecast make predictions that are accurate. Calculations included blank votes in this race Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in., Republicans won 26 of the 2022 election predictions, state Pages, Special elections wave election pending! 219-211 lead in the House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % the... Our professional staff of editors, writers, and two were newly created districts after the census! Their chances of taking over the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana contact editorial! By author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 elections 's happy to chat about weather forecasting too forty-four ( 44 states. Partys forecasted seat total and chances of taking over the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or a net gain. A delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections of Representatives in the last.! 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP, Larry J.,. Party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the House have changed time. Darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur moving the candidate filing to. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of controlling the House have changed over time Texas surge could net them congressional! 2022 election was seven Democrats and 435 of the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives in the 2020 cycle to. The direction each party takes legislative actions in each state in the table below the 27 seats rated as Up...

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